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継続確率のみの6段階設定の判定

継続確率の推定は、初当たり回数と総当たり回数をもとに行います。

初当たり回数n、総当たり回数m、継続確率をrとすれば、平均総当たり回数はn/(1-r)、標準偏差√(nr)/(1-r)となります。
尚、この標準偏差はヘソ・電チューで継続確率が同じという、最もシンプルな継続システムのものです。この場合が標準偏差が最少になります。複雑な継続システムは標準偏差が大きくなりますが、新基準では出玉の上限が従来基準より大きく規制されており、この程度のシンプルな継続システムでないと検定を通らないと思われます。

計算例を以下に示します。平均総当たり回数は設定6/設定1=1.5としてあります)

尚、TDIST(p値,n-1,1)で計算を行うには、自由度nは最少2です。即ち、初当たり回数2回以上でなければこの方法は適用できません。

表の見方としては、確率が2.5%以下のものは、危険率5%、即ち20回に1回は間違った判定を行う可能性があることを前提に、否定される設定となります。

初当たり回数2回では設定判定はできません。

初当たり回数4回では継続確率60%でも平均総当たり回数が10回ですが、14回以上あれば一番低い設定から順次除外されていきます。ほぼ、設定判定不可能といえます。

初当たり回数6回では継続確率60%でも平均総当たり回数が15回ですが、17回以上あれば一番低い設定から順次除外されていきます。大きい大当り回数が確認されたなら、低い設定はないと判定できます。

初当たり回数8回では継続確率60%でも平均総当たり回数が20回ですが、21回以上あれば一番低い設定から順次除外されていきます。20回以上の大当り回数が確認されたなら、低い設定はないと判定できます。

初当たり回数10回では継続確率60%でも平均総当たり回数が25回ですが、25回以上あれば一番低い設定から順次除外されていきます。25回以上の大当り回数が確認されたなら、低い設定はないと判定できます。また、10回、11回では高い設定はないと判定できます。

初当たり回数2回
継続確率:60%,56%,52%,48%,44%,40%
総当り2回:23.6%,24.1%,24.7%,25.3%,26.0%,26.8%
総当り3回:29.9%,31.8%,34.0%,36.6%,39.5%,43.0%
総当り4回:38.9%,42.9%,47.5%,47.4%,42.0%,36.6%
総当り5回:50.0%,44.1%,38.1%,32.5%,27.5%,23.2%
総当り6回:38.9%,32.7%,27.3%,22.9%,19.2%,16.2%
総当り7回:29.9%,24.7%,20.5%,17.1%,14.5%,12.3%
総当り8回:23.6%,19.4%,16.1%,13.6%,11.5%,9.8%
総当り9回:19.1%,15.8%,13.2%,11.2%,9.5%,8.2%
総当り10回:16.0%,13.2%,11.1%,9.5%,8.1%,7.0%
総当り11回:13.6%,11.4%,9.6%,8.2%,7.1%,6.1%
総当り12回:11.9%,9.9%,8.4%,7.2%,6.2%,5.4%
総当り13回:10.5%,8.8%,7.5%,6.5%,5.6%,4.9%
総当り14回:9.4%,7.9%,6.8%,5.8%,5.1%,4.4%
総当り15回:8.5%,7.2%,6.2%,5.3%,4.6%,4.0%
総当り16回:7.8%,6.6%,5.7%,4.9%,4.3%,3.7%
総当り17回:7.1%,6.1%,5.2%,4.5%,4.0%,3.5%
総当り18回:6.6%,5.6%,4.9%,4.2%,3.7%,3.2%
総当り19回:6.1%,5.2%,4.5%,3.9%,3.4%,3.0%
総当り20回:5.7%,4.9%,4.2%,3.7%,3.2%,2.8%

初当たり回数4回
継続確率:60%,56%,52%,48%,44%,40%
総当り4回:11.0%,11.6%,12.2%,13.0%,13.8%,14.8%
総当り5回:14.4%,15.8%,17.4%,19.3%,21.6%,24.3%
総当り6回:18.9%,21.5%,24.7%,28.5%,33.1%,38.6%
総当り7回:24.8%,29.1%,34.4%,40.6%,47.8%,44.2%
総当り8回:32.1%,38.5%,45.9%,45.8%,37.1%,28.6%
総当り9回:40.6%,49.0%,41.9%,32.9%,24.5%,17.5%
総当り10回:50.0%,40.3%,30.9%,22.5%,15.7%,10.6%
総当り11回:40.6%,30.7%,22.0%,15.1%,10.1%,6.6%
総当り12回:32.1%,22.8%,15.5%,10.2%,6.6%,4.3%
総当り13回:24.8%,16.7%,10.9%,7.0%,4.5%,2.9%
総当り14回:18.9%,12.2%,7.8%,4.9%,3.1%,2.0%
総当り15回:14.4%,9.0%,5.7%,3.6%,2.3%,1.4%
総当り16回:11.0%,6.8%,4.2%,2.6%,1.7%,1.1%
総当り17回:8.4%,5.1%,3.2%,2.0%,1.3%,0.8%
総当り18回:6.5%,4.0%,2.4%,1.5%,1.0%,0.6%
総当り19回:5.1%,3.1%,1.9%,1.2%,0.8%,0.5%
総当り20回:4.1%,2.5%,1.5%,1.0%,0.6%,0.4%

初当たり回数6回
継続確率:60%,56%,52%,48%,44%,40%
総当り6回:5.8%,6.3%,6.9%,7.5%,8.3%,9.1%
総当り7回:7.6%,8.6%,9.8%,11.2%,12.8%,14.9%
総当り8回:10.0%,11.7%,13.8%,16.4%,19.6%,23.7%
総当り9回:13.1%,15.8%,19.3%,23.6%,29.0%,35.7%
総当り10回:17.0%,21.1%,26.4%,32.9%,40.8%,50.0%
総当り11回:21.9%,27.7%,35.0%,43.8%,46.3%,35.7%
総当り12回:27.7%,35.5%,44.9%,44.7%,33.8%,23.7%
総当り13回:34.5%,44.2%,44.9%,33.7%,23.3%,14.9%
総当り14回:42.1%,46.7%,35.0%,24.2%,15.4%,9.1%
総当り15回:50.0%,37.8%,26.4%,16.9%,10.0%,5.5%
総当り16回:42.1%,29.7%,19.3%,11.5%,6.4%,3.4%
総当り17回:34.5%,22.8%,13.8%,7.8%,4.1%,2.1%
総当り18回:27.7%,17.1%,9.8%,5.2%,2.7%,1.3%
総当り19回:21.9%,12.7%,6.9%,3.5%,1.8%,0.9%
総当り20回:17.0%,9.4%,4.9%,2.4%,1.2%,0.6%
総当り21回:13.1%,6.9%,3.4%,1.7%,0.8%,0.4%
総当り22回:10.0%,5.0%,2.5%,1.2%,0.6%,0.3%
総当り23回:7.6%,3.7%,1.8%,0.9%,0.4%,0.2%
総当り24回:5.8%,2.8%,1.3%,0.6%,0.3%,0.1%
総当り25回:4.4%,2.1%,1.0%,0.5%,0.2%,0.1%
総当り26回:3.4%,1.6%,0.7%,0.3%,0.2%,0.1%
総当り27回:2.6%,1.2%,0.5%,0.3%,0.1%,0.1%
総当り28回:2.0%,0.9%,0.4%,0.2%,0.1%,0.0%
総当り29回:1.6%,0.7%,0.3%,0.2%,0.1%,0.0%
総当り30回:1.3%,0.6%,0.3%,0.1%,0.1%,0.0%

初当たり回数8回
継続確率:60%,56%,52%,48%,44%,40%
総当り8回:3.2%,3.6%,4.0%,4.5%,5.1%,5.8%
総当り9回:4.2%,4.9%,5.7%,6.7%,7.9%,9.5%
総当り10回:5.5%,6.6%,8.0%,9.8%,12.1%,15.0%
総当り11回:7.2%,9.0%,11.2%,14.1%,18.0%,23.0%
総当り12回:9.4%,12.0%,15.4%,19.9%,25.9%,33.4%
総当り13回:12.1%,15.9%,20.8%,27.3%,35.6%,45.7%
総当り14回:15.5%,20.7%,27.5%,36.2%,46.7%,41.5%
総当り15回:19.6%,26.5%,35.3%,46.1%,41.9%,29.7%
総当り16回:24.4%,33.2%,44.0%,43.7%,31.2%,20.0%
総当り17回:30.0%,40.6%,47.0%,34.1%,22.2%,12.9%
総当り18回:36.3%,48.5%,38.1%,25.5%,15.2%,8.1%
総当り19回:43.0%,43.5%,30.0%,18.5%,10.1%,5.0%
総当り20回:50.0%,35.8%,22.9%,13.0%,6.6%,3.0%
総当り21回:43.0%,28.8%,17.1%,9.0%,4.3%,1.8%
総当り22回:36.3%,22.7%,12.5%,6.1%,2.7%,1.1%
総当り23回:30.0%,17.5%,9.0%,4.2%,1.8%,0.7%
総当り24回:24.4%,13.3%,6.4%,2.8%,1.2%,0.5%
総当り25回:19.6%,10.0%,4.5%,1.9%,0.8%,0.3%
総当り26回:15.5%,7.4%,3.2%,1.3%,0.5%,0.2%
総当り27回:12.1%,5.5%,2.3%,0.9%,0.3%,0.1%
総当り28回:9.4%,4.0%,1.6%,0.6%,0.2%,0.1%
総当り29回:7.2%,3.0%,1.1%,0.4%,0.2%,0.1%
総当り30回:5.5%,2.2%,0.8%,0.3%,0.1%,0.0%
総当り31回:4.2%,1.6%,0.6%,0.2%,0.1%,0.0%
総当り32回:3.2%,1.2%,0.4%,0.2%,0.1%,0.0%
総当り33回:2.5%,0.9%,0.3%,0.1%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り34回:1.9%,0.7%,0.2%,0.1%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り35回:1.4%,0.5%,0.2%,0.1%,0.0%,0.0%

初当たり回数10回
継続確率:60%,56%,52%,48%,44%,40%
総当り10回:1.8%,2.1%,2.4%,2.8%,3.3%,3.8%
総当り11回:2.4%,2.9%,3.4%,4.1%,5.0%,6.2%
総当り12回:3.1%,3.9%,4.8%,6.0%,7.6%,9.8%
総当り13回:4.1%,5.2%,6.7%,8.7%,11.3%,15.0%
総当り14回:5.3%,7.0%,9.2%,12.3%,16.5%,22.2%
総当り15回:6.8%,9.2%,12.5%,17.1%,23.3%,31.5%
総当り16回:8.8%,12.1%,16.8%,23.1%,31.6%,42.3%
総当り17回:11.2%,15.7%,22.0%,30.5%,41.2%,46.1%
総当り18回:14.1%,20.1%,28.3%,38.8%,48.5%,34.9%
総当り19回:17.6%,25.3%,35.4%,47.9%,38.4%,25.1%
総当り20回:21.8%,31.2%,43.2%,43.0%,29.1%,17.2%
総当り21回:26.5%,37.8%,48.6%,34.2%,21.2%,11.3%
総当り22回:31.8%,44.8%,40.6%,26.4%,14.9%,7.2%
総当り23回:37.6%,48.0%,33.0%,19.7%,10.1%,4.5%
総当り24回:43.7%,40.9%,26.1%,14.3%,6.8%,2.8%
総当り25回:50.0%,34.1%,20.2%,10.2%,4.4%,1.7%
総当り26回:43.7%,27.9%,15.3%,7.1%,2.9%,1.0%
総当り27回:37.6%,22.4%,11.3%,4.9%,1.9%,0.6%
総当り28回:31.8%,17.6%,8.3%,3.4%,1.2%,0.4%
総当り29回:26.5%,13.7%,6.0%,2.3%,0.8%,0.2%
総当り30回:21.8%,10.5%,4.3%,1.5%,0.5%,0.2%
総当り31回:17.6%,7.9%,3.1%,1.0%,0.3%,0.1%
総当り32回:14.1%,5.9%,2.2%,0.7%,0.2%,0.1%
総当り33回:11.2%,4.4%,1.5%,0.5%,0.1%,0.0%
総当り34回:8.8%,3.3%,1.1%,0.3%,0.1%,0.0%
総当り35回:6.8%,2.4%,0.8%,0.2%,0.1%,0.0%
総当り36回:5.3%,1.8%,0.5%,0.2%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り37回:4.1%,1.3%,0.4%,0.1%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り38回:3.1%,1.0%,0.3%,0.1%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り39回:2.4%,0.7%,0.2%,0.1%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り40回:1.8%,0.5%,0.1%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%

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