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大当り確率のみの6段階設定の判定

大当り確率pのスペックをn回転打った場合の初当たり回数分布は二項分布でその平均値はnp、標準偏差は√(np(1-p))です。

p値=(大当り回数-平均値)/標準偏差のt値=TDIST(p値,n-1,1)を求めます。TDISTはt分布を計算するEXCEL関数です。

t値の2倍(片側検定のため倍なります)の確率で、観測された大当り回数は、設定から想定される大当り回数とは異なると解釈します。

統計では一般的に5%で判定しますので、t値が2.5%以下のものは、危険率5%、即ち20回に1回は間違った判定を行う可能性があることを前提に、否定される設定となります。従って、否定されずに残ったものが設定となります。

甘デジとミドル機の場合のt値を計算してみました。

結論としては、殆どは全設定とも否定するか、肯定するかしか判定できず、どの設定かは区別できません。

従って、初当たり回数と総回転数(電サポの回転数は除く)から設定を判定することは困難と思われます。

尚、一部の組み合わせでは例えば、上位3か下位3かのどちらかといった程度の判定はできる場合はありますが、そのような場合でも、

ミドル機では相当の回転数でなければ区別できなく、短時間の判定は不可です。

甘デジでも観測された初当たり回数によっては区別可能なケースも多少はありますが、かなり限れた初当たり回数に限られます。

総回転数は電サポの回転数は除いてます。一般の大当り表示カウンターは時短の回転数を含めてますので、大当り表示カウンターから初当たり回数と総回転数を見る場合は、総回転数から時短の回転数を除外する必要があります。

ケース1

大当り確率が1/80、1/88、1/96、1/104、1/112、1/120の6段階の設定を考えます。

200回転時
確率:1/80,1/88,1/96,1/104,1/112,1/120
0回:5.66%,6.55%,7.42%,8.25%,9.05%,9.82%
1回:17.05%,19.84%,22.57%,25.22%,27.77%,30.23%
2回:37.53%,42.79%,47.69%,47.78%,43.61%,39.78%
3回:37.53%,31.40%,26.20%,21.81%,18.12%,15.05%
4回:17.05%,12.53%,9.17%,6.70%,4.88%,3.55%
5回:5.66%,3.52%,2.18%,1.34%,0.83%,0.51%
6回:1.35%,0.69%,0.35%,0.18%,0.09%,0.05%
7回:0.23%,0.09%,0.04%,0.02%,0.01%,0.00%
8回:0.03%,0.01%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%
9回:0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%
10回:0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%

500回転時
確率:1/80,1/88,1/96,1/104,1/112,1/120
0回:0.61%,0.84%,1.11%,1.40%,1.71%,2.05%
1回:1.75%,2.44%,3.22%,4.08%,5.01%,6.00%
2回:4.39%,6.05%,7.91%,9.94%,12.10%,14.35%
3回:9.57%,12.92%,16.56%,20.39%,24.33%,28.31%
4回:18.28%,23.91%,29.74%,35.57%,41.27%,46.73%
5回:30.75%,38.69%,46.35%,46.49%,39.95%,34.10%
6回:45.99%,44.66%,36.37%,29.25%,23.28%,18.38%
7回:38.14%,28.92%,21.52%,15.78%,11.43%,8.20%
8回:24.08%,16.42%,10.97%,7.21%,4.67%,3.00%
9回:13.44%,8.11%,4.78%,2.76%,1.58%,0.89%
10回:6.59%,3.45%,1.77%,0.89%,0.44%,0.21%
11回:2.82%,1.26%,0.55%,0.24%,0.10%,0.04%
12回:1.05%,0.40%,0.15%,0.05%,0.02%,0.01%
13回:0.34%,0.11%,0.03%,0.01%,0.00%,0.00%
14回:0.10%,0.02%,0.01%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%
15回:0.02%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%

1000回転時
確率:1/80,1/88,1/96,1/104,1/112,1/120
0回:0.02%,0.04%,0.06%,0.09%,0.14%,0.19%
1回:0.05%,0.10%,0.17%,0.27%,0.39%,0.54%
2回:0.14%,0.27%,0.44%,0.69%,1.00%,1.39%
3回:0.35%,0.64%,1.05%,1.61%,2.33%,3.19%
4回:0.79%,1.41%,2.30%,3.46%,4.89%,6.60%
5回:1.65%,2.90%,4.59%,6.75%,9.35%,12.33%
6回:3.23%,5.49%,8.46%,12.08%,16.26%,20.86%
7回:5.89%,9.66%,14.38%,19.85%,25.85%,32.14%
8回:10.03%,15.79%,22.59%,30.04%,37.75%,45.39%
9回:15.97%,24.04%,32.96%,42.10%,49.04%,40.83%
10回:23.84%,34.21%,44.84%,45.04%,35.94%,28.11%
11回:33.48%,45.68%,42.79%,32.69%,24.32%,17.69%
12回:44.34%,42.47%,31.10%,21.99%,15.10%,10.12%
13回:44.34%,31.28%,21.06%,13.65%,8.57%,5.24%
14回:33.48%,21.59%,13.23%,7.78%,4.43%,2.45%
15回:23.84%,13.91%,7.69%,4.07%,2.08%,1.03%
16回:15.97%,8.34%,4.12%,1.94%,0.88%,0.39%
17回:10.03%,4.65%,2.03%,0.84%,0.34%,0.13%
18回:5.89%,2.40%,0.92%,0.34%,0.12%,0.04%
19回:3.23%,1.15%,0.38%,0.12%,0.04%,0.01%
20回:1.65%,0.51%,0.15%,0.04%,0.01%,0.00%

2000回転時
確率:1/80,1/88,1/96,1/104,1/112,1/120
5回:0.00%,0.01%,0.02%,0.06%,0.11%,0.21%
6回:0.01%,0.02%,0.06%,0.12%,0.24%,0.44%
7回:0.01%,0.05%,0.12%,0.26%,0.50%,0.88%
8回:0.03%,0.10%,0.24%,0.51%,0.96%,1.66%
9回:0.07%,0.19%,0.46%,0.96%,1.77%,2.97%
10回:0.13%,0.37%,0.86%,1.73%,3.10%,5.06%
11回:0.24%,0.67%,1.52%,2.97%,5.16%,8.18%
12回:0.45%,1.19%,2.59%,4.89%,8.20%,12.56%
13回:0.79%,2.01%,4.23%,7.68%,12.42%,18.36%
14回:1.35%,3.29%,6.62%,11.54%,17.97%,25.60%
15回:2.21%,5.16%,9.95%,16.62%,24.86%,34.09%
16回:3.51%,7.80%,14.36%,22.96%,32.95%,43.49%
17回:5.38%,11.35%,19.93%,30.46%,41.93%,46.73%
18回:7.95%,15.94%,26.63%,38.90%,48.65%,37.15%
19回:11.37%,21.59%,34.32%,47.89%,39.30%,28.30%
20回:15.72%,28.26%,42.72%,43.01%,30.53%,20.62%
21回:21.04%,35.78%,48.54%,34.26%,22.76%,14.33%
22回:27.30%,43.90%,39.86%,26.29%,16.24%,9.49%
23回:34.37%,47.71%,31.66%,19.39%,11.08%,5.97%
24回:42.03%,39.42%,24.28%,13.73%,7.22%,3.57%
25回:50.00%,31.58%,17.95%,9.32%,4.48%,2.03%
26回:42.03%,24.50%,12.76%,6.05%,2.65%,1.09%
27回:34.37%,18.37%,8.73%,3.76%,1.49%,0.56%
28回:27.30%,13.31%,5.73%,2.23%,0.80%,0.27%
29回:21.04%,9.29%,3.61%,1.26%,0.41%,0.12%
30回:15.72%,6.26%,2.18%,0.68%,0.20%,0.05%

ケース2

大当り確率が1/200、1/220、1/240、1/260、1/280、1/300の6段階の設定を考えます。

200回転時
確率:1/200,1/220,1/240,1/260,1/280,1/300
0回:15.87%,17.02%,18.07%,19.03%,19.91%,20.72%
1回:50.00%,46.20%,42.75%,39.62%,36.76%,34.15%
2回:15.87%,12.64%,10.09%,8.06%,6.45%,5.17%
3回:2.32%,1.46%,0.92%,0.58%,0.37%,0.23%
4回:0.15%,0.07%,0.03%,0.01%,0.01%,0.00%
5回:0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%

500回転時
確率:1/200,1/220,1/240,1/260,1/280,1/300
0回:5.68%,6.57%,7.43%,8.27%,9.06%,9.83%
1回:17.10%,19.89%,22.62%,25.26%,27.81%,30.26%
2回:37.57%,42.81%,47.69%,47.79%,43.62%,39.80%
3回:37.57%,31.45%,26.24%,21.84%,18.15%,15.07%
4回:17.10%,12.57%,9.20%,6.70%,4.88%,3.54%
5回:5.68%,3.52%,2.17%,1.33%,0.82%,0.50%
6回:1.35%,0.68%,0.34%,0.17%,0.08%,0.04%
7回:0.23%,0.09%,0.03%,0.01%,0.01%,0.00%

1000回転時
確率:1/200,1/220,1/240,1/260,1/280,1/300
0回:1.26%,1.64%,2.05%,2.48%,2.93%,3.39%
1回:3.66%,4.79%,6.02%,7.31%,8.66%,10.04%
2回:8.95%,11.59%,14.39%,17.29%,20.25%,23.23%
3回:18.51%,23.38%,28.35%,33.28%,38.10%,42.75%
4回:32.70%,39.88%,46.74%,46.87%,41.02%,35.73%
5回:50.00%,41.54%,34.13%,27.78%,22.45%,18.04%
6回:32.70%,24.71%,18.42%,13.57%,9.91%,7.19%
7回:18.51%,12.44%,8.23%,5.37%,3.47%,2.23%
8回:8.95%,5.23%,3.01%,1.70%,0.95%,0.53%
9回:3.66%,1.82%,0.89%,0.43%,0.20%,0.10%
10回:1.26%,0.52%,0.21%,0.09%,0.03%,0.01%

2000回転時
確率:1/200,1/220,1/240,1/260,1/280,1/300
0回:0.08%,0.13%,0.19%,0.28%,0.37%,0.49%
1回:0.22%,0.36%,0.55%,0.79%,1.07%,1.40%
2回:0.56%,0.93%,1.40%,1.99%,2.70%,3.52%
3回:1.33%,2.15%,3.21%,4.51%,6.03%,7.75%
4回:2.86%,4.54%,6.63%,9.12%,11.95%,15.05%
5回:5.66%,8.70%,12.37%,16.54%,21.10%,25.90%
6回:10.25%,15.22%,20.90%,27.05%,33.42%,39.80%
7回:17.08%,24.36%,32.18%,40.13%,47.87%,44.86%
8回:26.31%,35.85%,45.39%,45.58%,37.40%,30.25%
9回:37.56%,48.79%,40.85%,31.83%,24.32%,18.27%
10回:50.00%,38.13%,28.15%,20.23%,14.22%,9.81%
11回:37.56%,26.29%,17.74%,11.61%,7.42%,4.65%
12回:26.31%,16.68%,10.16%,5.99%,3.44%,1.93%
13回:17.08%,9.70%,5.27%,2.77%,1.41%,0.70%
14回:10.25%,5.14%,2.47%,1.14%,0.51%,0.22%
15回:5.66%,2.48%,1.04%,0.42%,0.16%,0.06%
16回:2.86%,1.09%,0.39%,0.14%,0.05%,0.02%
17回:1.33%,0.43%,0.13%,0.04%,0.01%,0.00%
18回:0.56%,0.15%,0.04%,0.01%,0.00%,0.00%
19回:0.22%,0.05%,0.01%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%
20回:0.08%,0.01%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%

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