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大当り確率と継続確率の両方の6段階設定の判定

大当り確率と継続確率の両方を変える6段階設定の判定は総回転数と総当たり回数からt検定を行うことでできます。

総回転数をn、大当り確率をp、継続確率をrとすれば、平均総当たり回数はnp/(1-r)、標準偏差は√((1+r)np)/(1-r)となります。

尚、この標準偏差はヘソ・電チューで継続確率が同じという、最もシンプルな継続システムのものです。この場合が標準偏差が最少になります。複雑な継続システムは標準偏差が大きくなりますが、新基準では出玉の上限が従来基準より大きく規制されており、この程度のシンプルな継続システムでないとスペックを相当きつくしない限りは検定を通らないと思われます。

p値=(総当り回数-平均総当たり回数)/標準偏差として、t値=TDIST(p値,n-1,1)を求めれば、観測された総当たり回数をもとに6段階のどの設定かを判定できる場合があります。

t値が2.5%以下のものは、危険率5%、即ち20回に1回は間違った判定を行う可能性があることを前提に、否定される設定となります。従って、否定されずに残ったものが設定となります。

総回転数は電サポの回転数は除いてます。一般の大当り表示カウンターは時短の回転数を含めてますので、大当り表示カウンターから初当たり回数と総回転数を見る場合は、総回転数から時短の回転数を除外する必要があります。

例えば、時短100回の場合、100×初当たり回数分の回転数を除外する必要があります。結構大きな回数です。

計算例を示します。(平均総当たり回数は設定6/設定1=1.5としてあります)
赤太字は許容される設定です。

総回数200回
大当り確率:1/90,1/94,1/98,1/10200%,1/106,1/110
継続確率:56.0%,54.0%,52.0%,50.0%,48.0%,46.0%
総当り0回:11.7%,12.1%,12.4%,12.7%,13.0%,13.3%
総当り1回:17.0%,17.9%,18.8%,19.8%,20.7%,21.7%
総当り2回:23.6%,25.3%,27.0%,28.8%,30.6%,32.5%
総当り3回:31.4%,34.0%,36.7%,39.4%,42.3%,45.2%
総当り4回:40.2%,43.7%,47.3%,49.1%,45.4%,41.7%
総当り5回:49.5%,46.2%,41.9%,37.7%,33.5%,29.4%
総当り6回:41.1%,36.4%,31.7%,27.3%,23.1%,19.2%
総当り7回:32.3%,27.3%,22.7%,18.5%,14.8%,11.5%
総当り8回:24.3%,19.6%,15.4%,11.8%,8.8%,6.3%
総当り9回:17.6%,13.4%,9.9%,7.0%,4.8%,3.2%
総当り10回:12.2%,8.7%,5.9%,3.9%,2.4%,1.5%
総当り11回:8.1%,5.3%,3.4%,2.0%,1.1%,0.6%
総当り12回:5.1%,3.1%,1.8%,1.0%,0.5%,0.2%
総当り13回:3.1%,1.7%,0.9%,0.4%,0.2%,0.1%
総当り14回:1.8%,0.9%,0.4%,0.2%,0.1%,0.0%
総当り15回:1.0%,0.5%,0.2%,0.1%,0.0%,0.0%

総回数500回
大当り確率:1/90,1/94,1/98,1/10200%,1/106,1/110
継続確率:56.0%,54.0%,52.0%,50.0%,48.0%,46.0%
総当り0回:3.0%,3.2%,3.4%,3.6%,3.7%,3.9%
総当り1回:4.1%,4.5%,4.9%,5.3%,5.6%,6.0%
総当り2回:5.6%,6.2%,6.9%,7.5%,8.2%,9.0%
総当り3回:7.5%,8.5%,9.5%,10.5%,11.6%,12.8%
総当り4回:9.9%,11.2%,12.7%,14.3%,15.9%,17.7%
総当り5回:12.7%,14.6%,16.6%,18.8%,21.2%,23.7%
総当り6回:16.1%,18.6%,21.3%,24.2%,27.3%,30.6%
総当り7回:20.0%,23.2%,26.6%,30.3%,34.2%,38.3%
総当り8回:24.5%,28.4%,32.5%,37.0%,41.7%,46.5%
総当り9回:29.4%,34.0%,38.9%,44.1%,49.4%,45.1%
総当り10回:34.7%,40.1%,45.7%,48.6%,42.8%,37.0%
総当り11回:40.4%,46.4%,47.5%,41.3%,35.2%,29.4%
総当り12回:46.3%,47.2%,40.7%,34.3%,28.2%,22.7%
総当り13回:47.8%,40.9%,34.1%,27.8%,22.0%,16.9%
総当り14回:41.9%,34.8%,28.1%,22.0%,16.6%,12.1%
総当り15回:36.1%,29.0%,22.6%,16.9%,12.2%,8.4%
総当り16回:30.7%,23.8%,17.8%,12.7%,8.7%,5.6%
総当り17回:25.7%,19.1%,13.6%,9.3%,6.0%,3.6%
総当り18回:21.1%,15.1%,10.2%,6.6%,4.0%,2.3%
総当り19回:17.1%,11.6%,7.5%,4.5%,2.6%,1.3%
総当り20回:13.5%,8.8%,5.3%,3.0%,1.6%,0.8%
総当り21回:10.6%,6.5%,3.7%,2.0%,1.0%,0.4%
総当り22回:8.1%,4.7%,2.5%,1.2%,0.6%,0.2%
総当り23回:6.1%,3.3%,1.7%,0.8%,0.3%,0.1%
総当り24回:4.5%,2.3%,1.1%,0.5%,0.2%,0.1%
総当り25回:3.2%,1.6%,0.7%,0.3%,0.1%,0.0%
総当り26回:2.3%,1.0%,0.4%,0.1%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り27回:1.6%,0.7%,0.2%,0.1%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り28回:1.1%,0.4%,0.1%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り29回:0.7%,0.3%,0.1%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り30回:0.5%,0.2%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%

総回数1000回
大当り確率:1/90,1/94,1/98,1/10200%,1/106,1/110
継続確率:56.0%,54.0%,52.0%,50.0%,48.0%,46.0%
総当り0回:0.4%,0.4%,0.5%,0.5%,0.6%,0.6%
総当り1回:0.5%,0.6%,0.7%,0.8%,0.9%,1.0%
総当り2回:0.7%,0.8%,1.0%,1.1%,1.2%,1.4%
総当り3回:0.9%,1.1%,1.3%,1.5%,1.8%,2.0%
総当り4回:1.2%,1.5%,1.8%,2.1%,2.5%,2.9%
総当り5回:1.6%,2.0%,2.4%,2.9%,3.4%,4.0%
総当り6回:2.1%,2.6%,3.2%,3.8%,4.6%,5.4%
総当り7回:2.7%,3.4%,4.1%,5.0%,6.1%,7.3%
総当り8回:3.4%,4.3%,5.3%,6.5%,7.9%,9.5%
総当り9回:4.3%,5.4%,6.8%,8.3%,10.2%,12.3%
総当り10回:5.4%,6.8%,8.5%,10.5%,12.9%,15.6%
総当り11回:6.6%,8.4%,10.6%,13.1%,16.0%,19.4%
総当り12回:8.1%,10.3%,13.0%,16.1%,19.6%,23.7%
総当り13回:9.8%,12.5%,15.7%,19.5%,23.7%,28.5%
総当り14回:11.7%,15.0%,18.8%,23.2%,28.2%,33.7%
総当り15回:13.9%,17.8%,22.3%,27.4%,33.1%,39.3%
総当り16回:16.4%,20.9%,26.1%,31.9%,38.3%,45.1%
総当り17回:19.2%,24.3%,30.2%,36.7%,43.7%,49.0%
総当り18回:22.2%,28.0%,34.6%,41.7%,49.2%,43.1%
総当り19回:25.4%,32.0%,39.2%,46.8%,45.3%,37.4%
総当り20回:28.9%,36.1%,43.9%,48.0%,39.8%,32.0%
総当り21回:32.7%,40.5%,48.7%,42.8%,34.5%,26.9%
総当り22回:36.6%,44.9%,46.4%,37.8%,29.6%,22.2%
総当り23回:40.6%,49.4%,41.6%,32.9%,25.0%,18.1%
総当り24回:44.7%,46.0%,36.9%,28.3%,20.8%,14.4%
総当り25回:48.9%,41.6%,32.4%,24.1%,17.0%,11.3%
総当り26回:46.9%,37.2%,28.2%,20.2%,13.7%,8.7%
総当り27回:42.7%,33.0%,24.2%,16.8%,10.9%,6.6%
総当り28回:38.6%,29.0%,20.6%,13.7%,8.5%,4.9%
総当り29回:34.6%,25.2%,17.3%,11.1%,6.6%,3.6%
総当り30回:30.8%,21.7%,14.3%,8.8%,5.0%,2.6%
総当り31回:27.2%,18.6%,11.8%,6.9%,3.7%,1.8%
総当り32回:23.8%,15.7%,9.5%,5.3%,2.7%,1.2%
総当り33回:20.7%,13.1%,7.6%,4.1%,1.9%,0.8%
総当り34回:17.8%,10.8%,6.0%,3.0%,1.4%,0.6%
総当り35回:15.2%,8.9%,4.7%,2.3%,1.0%,0.4%
総当り36回:12.8%,7.2%,3.6%,1.6%,0.7%,0.2%
総当り37回:10.7%,5.8%,2.8%,1.2%,0.4%,0.1%
総当り38回:8.9%,4.6%,2.1%,0.8%,0.3%,0.1%
総当り39回:7.3%,3.6%,1.5%,0.6%,0.2%,0.1%
総当り40回:6.0%,2.8%,1.1%,0.4%,0.1%,0.0%
総当り41回:4.8%,2.1%,0.8%,0.3%,0.1%,0.0%
総当り42回:3.9%,1.6%,0.6%,0.2%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り43回:3.0%,1.2%,0.4%,0.1%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り44回:2.4%,0.9%,0.3%,0.1%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り45回:1.9%,0.7%,0.2%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%

総回数2000回
大当り確率:1/90,1/94,1/98,1/10200%,1/106,1/110
継続確率:56.0%,54.0%,52.0%,50.0%,48.0%,46.0%
総当り0回:0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り1回:0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り2回:0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り3回:0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,0.1%,0.1%
総当り4回:0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,0.1%,0.1%,0.1%
総当り5回:0.0%,0.0%,0.1%,0.1%,0.1%,0.1%
総当り6回:0.0%,0.1%,0.1%,0.1%,0.1%,0.2%
総当り7回:0.1%,0.1%,0.1%,0.2%,0.2%,0.3%
総当り8回:0.1%,0.1%,0.1%,0.2%,0.3%,0.4%
総当り9回:0.1%,0.1%,0.2%,0.3%,0.4%,0.5%
総当り10回:0.1%,0.2%,0.3%,0.4%,0.5%,0.7%
総当り11回:0.2%,0.2%,0.3%,0.5%,0.6%,0.9%
総当り12回:0.2%,0.3%,0.4%,0.6%,0.8%,1.2%
総当り13回:0.3%,0.4%,0.6%,0.8%,1.1%,1.5%
総当り14回:0.3%,0.5%,0.7%,1.0%,1.4%,2.0%
総当り15回:0.4%,0.6%,0.9%,1.3%,1.8%,2.5%
総当り16回:0.5%,0.8%,1.1%,1.6%,2.3%,3.2%
総当り17回:0.6%,0.9%,1.4%,2.0%,2.9%,4.0%
総当り18回:0.8%,1.2%,1.7%,2.5%,3.6%,5.0%
総当り19回:0.9%,1.4%,2.1%,3.1%,4.5%,6.2%
総当り20回:1.1%,1.8%,2.6%,3.8%,5.5%,7.6%
総当り21回:1.4%,2.1%,3.2%,4.7%,6.6%,9.2%
総当り22回:1.7%,2.6%,3.9%,5.6%,8.0%,11.1%
総当り23回:2.0%,3.1%,4.6%,6.8%,9.6%,13.2%
総当り24回:2.4%,3.7%,5.5%,8.0%,11.3%,15.5%
総当り25回:2.8%,4.4%,6.6%,9.5%,13.3%,18.2%
総当り26回:3.4%,5.2%,7.7%,11.2%,15.6%,21.1%
総当り27回:4.0%,6.1%,9.1%,13.0%,18.1%,24.2%
総当り28回:4.6%,7.1%,10.6%,15.1%,20.8%,27.6%
総当り29回:5.4%,8.3%,12.2%,17.3%,23.7%,31.2%
総当り30回:6.3%,9.6%,14.0%,19.8%,26.8%,35.0%
総当り31回:7.3%,11.0%,16.1%,22.4%,30.2%,39.0%
総当り32回:8.3%,12.6%,18.2%,25.3%,33.7%,43.1%
総当り33回:9.5%,14.3%,20.6%,28.3%,37.3%,47.2%
総当り34回:10.9%,16.2%,23.2%,31.5%,41.1%,48.6%
総当り35回:12.3%,18.3%,25.9%,34.9%,45.0%,44.5%
総当り36回:13.9%,20.5%,28.7%,38.3%,48.9%,40.4%
総当り37回:15.6%,22.9%,31.7%,41.9%,47.2%,36.4%
総当り38回:17.5%,25.4%,34.9%,45.5%,43.3%,32.5%
総当り39回:19.5%,28.0%,38.1%,49.2%,39.5%,28.8%
総当り40回:21.6%,30.8%,41.4%,47.1%,35.7%,25.4%
総当り41回:23.9%,33.6%,44.8%,43.5%,32.1%,22.1%
総当り42回:26.3%,36.6%,48.2%,39.9%,28.7%,19.1%
総当り43回:28.7%,39.7%,48.3%,36.4%,25.4%,16.4%
総当り44回:31.3%,42.8%,44.9%,33.0%,22.4%,14.0%
総当り45回:34.0%,46.0%,41.5%,29.7%,19.6%,11.8%
総当り46回:36.8%,49.2%,38.2%,26.6%,17.0%,9.8%
総当り47回:39.7%,47.6%,35.0%,23.7%,14.6%,8.1%
総当り48回:42.6%,44.4%,31.8%,20.9%,12.5%,6.7%
総当り49回:45.5%,41.3%,28.8%,18.4%,10.5%,5.4%
総当り50回:48.5%,38.2%,26.0%,16.0%,8.9%,4.4%
総当り51回:48.5%,35.1%,23.2%,13.9%,7.4%,3.5%
総当り52回:45.6%,32.2%,20.7%,11.9%,6.1%,2.7%
総当り53回:42.6%,29.4%,18.3%,10.2%,5.0%,2.1%
総当り54回:39.7%,26.7%,16.1%,8.7%,4.1%,1.7%
総当り55回:36.8%,24.1%,14.1%,7.3%,3.3%,1.3%
総当り56回:34.1%,21.7%,12.3%,6.1%,2.6%,1.0%
総当り57回:31.4%,19.4%,10.6%,5.1%,2.1%,0.7%
総当り58回:28.8%,17.3%,9.1%,4.2%,1.6%,0.5%
総当り59回:26.3%,15.3%,7.8%,3.4%,1.3%,0.4%
総当り60回:23.9%,13.5%,6.6%,2.8%,1.0%,0.3%
総当り61回:21.6%,11.8%,5.6%,2.2%,0.8%,0.2%
総当り62回:19.5%,10.3%,4.7%,1.8%,0.6%,0.2%
総当り63回:17.5%,8.9%,3.9%,1.4%,0.4%,0.1%
総当り64回:15.7%,7.7%,3.2%,1.1%,0.3%,0.1%
総当り65回:13.9%,6.6%,2.6%,0.9%,0.2%,0.1%
総当り66回:12.4%,5.6%,2.2%,0.7%,0.2%,0.0%
総当り67回:10.9%,4.8%,1.7%,0.5%,0.1%,0.0%
総当り68回:9.6%,4.0%,1.4%,0.4%,0.1%,0.0%
総当り69回:8.4%,3.4%,1.1%,0.3%,0.1%,0.0%
総当り70回:7.3%,2.8%,0.9%,0.2%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り71回:6.3%,2.3%,0.7%,0.2%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り72回:5.4%,1.9%,0.6%,0.1%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り73回:4.6%,1.6%,0.4%,0.1%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り74回:4.0%,1.3%,0.3%,0.1%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り75回:3.4%,1.0%,0.3%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り76回:2.8%,0.8%,0.2%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り77回:2.4%,0.7%,0.1%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り78回:2.0%,0.5%,0.1%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り79回:1.7%,0.4%,0.1%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%
総当り80回:1.4%,0.3%,0.1%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%

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